San Diego Housing Trends To Watch

Wondering where San Diego housing is headed next? You are not alone. Whether you plan to buy, sell, or hold, the market can feel noisy and fast-moving. In this guide, you will learn the simple signals that matter most in San Diego, how they fit together, and how to use them to make a confident move. Let’s dive in.

Why trends matter in San Diego

San Diego is a higher-cost coastal market with a diverse job base and a mix of coastal, central, and inland neighborhoods. Those differences mean citywide averages can hide important local shifts. When you track the right metrics in the right places, you avoid guesswork and time your move with more clarity.

Key metric: inventory and MOI

Inventory shows how many homes are for sale. Months of Inventory, or MOI, converts that into pace: how long it would take to sell the current active listings at the current sales speed. Less than 3 months usually signals a seller’s market, about 3 to 6 months is more balanced, and more than 6 months leans buyer-friendly.

• What to watch: MOI by neighborhood and price tier. Coastal areas often differ from inland communities.
• Why it matters: MOI captures supply and demand tension. Tight supply usually means more competition. Rising MOI can open room for buyer negotiation.

Key metric: days on market (DOM)

Days on Market measures how long a home takes to go under contract. Shortening DOM suggests strong demand or sharp pricing. Lengthening DOM can point to cooling demand or overpricing.

• What to watch: DOM by price range and property type. Luxury homes tend to take longer. DOM is also seasonal and often shortest in spring.
• Why it matters: DOM reflects market speed and buyer urgency.

Key metric: median price

Median sale price shows the middle point of closed sale prices in a period. It is less affected by outliers than an average. Rising medians with low MOI point to seller leverage. Falling medians with higher MOI may indicate a cooling trend.

• What to watch: Month-to-month momentum and 12‑month changes to filter out seasonality.
• Why it matters: Price trends help set expectations for timing, list strategy, and negotiation.

Key metric: mortgage rates

Mortgage rates define buyer purchasing power and monthly payments. In higher-cost markets like San Diego, even small rate shifts can make a big difference in what buyers can afford.

• What to watch: Rate direction and volatility. A 0.5 to 1.0 percent move can materially change budgets.
• Why it matters: If rates drop, more buyers enter and activity can accelerate. If rates rise, demand can slow and DOM can lengthen.

How the metrics interact

These signals are strongest when you read them together.

• Scenario A: Tight supply + low DOM + stable or lower rates. Expect more multiple-offer situations and stronger pricing power for sellers. Buyers should prepare clean, competitive offers.
• Scenario B: Rising supply + longer DOM + high or jumpy rates. Buyers tend to gain leverage. Sellers benefit from precise pricing, targeted prep, and strong marketing.
• Scenario C: Low inventory + rising rates. Affordability shrinks even if competition stays present. Sellers may need realistic pricing while buyers refine budget ceilings.

Buyer takeaways

If you plan to buy, focus on the segments that match your budget and lifestyle. Then watch MOI and DOM in those exact areas. Entry-level homes often move faster than high-end homes when the market cools, and condos can behave differently than single-family homes.

• Get preapproved and understand your monthly payment at today’s rate. Include taxes, insurance, and HOA if applicable.
• If MOI is low and DOM is short, act quickly with strong terms. Think earnest money, clear inspection timelines, and flexible closing.
• If MOI is rising and DOM is lengthening, you may have more time and room to negotiate on price, credits, or repairs.

Seller takeaways

If you plan to sell, compare your neighborhood’s MOI and DOM to city averages. Pricing within your local comps is the single biggest driver of time on market. Pair that with smart preparation.

• In a slower patch, consider staging, strategic repairs, or upgrades that improve first impressions.
• Watch pending sales and price momentum over the last few weeks. In a rising-rate environment, selling sooner at a strong price can beat waiting for a small gain.
• Communicate market context to buyers. Clear information builds confidence and can speed up decisions.

Timing and seasonality

San Diego typically sees the most activity in spring. Inventory and buyers often rise together, which can compress DOM and support pricing. This is why it is smart to review both month-to-month and year-over-year changes so you do not confuse normal seasonal moves with real trend shifts.

Where to find current data

You can validate the latest numbers through trusted, local-first sources and respected national datasets:

• Check the San Diego Association of REALTORS monthly housing reports for median price, inventory, MOI, DOM, and pending sales. Use citywide and submarket views when available. Visit the San Diego Association of REALTORS.
• Compare county and statewide trends with the California Association of Realtors.
• For weekly mortgage rates, review the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
• Track employment and job trends that support housing demand through the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• For population and migration context, use reports from SANDAG.

Always note the report date next to any metric you reference. Monthly data often lags real-time activity by several weeks, so use pending sales and new listings for fresher signals.

Quick MOI example

MOI answers: if no new listings hit the market, how long would it take to sell what is available at the current pace?

• Formula: MOI = Active Listings divided by Average Monthly Closed Sales.
• Example: If a neighborhood has 150 active listings and averages 75 sales per month, MOI equals 2. That suggests a tighter, seller-leaning environment.

Use this calculation by neighborhood and price tier. City averages can mask very different local realities.

Neighborhood differences

San Diego is not one market. Coastal communities, central urban neighborhoods, and inland suburbs often move on different cycles. Luxury segments can show longer DOM in cooler periods, while entry-level areas may move faster when rates ease. That is why the best plan is to track MOI, DOM, and price momentum in your exact target area and price band.

Putting it all together

When you connect inventory, DOM, price trends, and mortgage rates, you get a clear and practical picture. Buyers set budgets and speed based on rates and local MOI. Sellers set pricing and prep based on DOM, list-to-sale trends, and the direction of pending sales. With a local lens, you reduce surprises and position yourself for better outcomes.

Your next step

If you want a tailored read on your neighborhood and price tier, we are here to help. New Keys Real Estate pairs deep local knowledge with Compass tools like Concierge and Private Exclusives to simplify prep, boost presentation, and reach qualified buyers. For a data-informed strategy or a free, no-pressure valuation, connect with Nadia Kasyouhannon.

FAQs

Is now a good time to buy a home in San Diego?

• It depends on your price tier, financing readiness, and target neighborhood; watch MOI and DOM locally and compare monthly and 12‑month trends to gauge competition and leverage.

How do mortgage rates affect San Diego home prices?

• Higher rates reduce affordability and can slow demand, which may lengthen DOM; lower rates expand the buyer pool and can accelerate activity and price appreciation.

What should San Diego sellers watch before listing?

• Track your neighborhood’s MOI, DOM, pending sales, and recent price momentum; in a rising-MOI environment, competitive pricing and strategic prep usually reduce time on market.

Which parts of San Diego are most volatile?

• Luxury coastal segments and high-end properties often show larger swings and longer DOM in cooling periods, while entry-level areas typically respond faster when rates fall.